基于ARIMA模型的硅钙渣水泥复合胶凝材料水化热预测

硅酸盐通报 ›› 2021, Vol. 40 ›› Issue (12): 3985-3992.

基于ARIMA模型的硅钙渣水泥复合胶凝材料水化热预测

闫长旺^1,2,3,4, 申晓玮¹, 张菊^2,3,4, 王萧萧¹, 于泓源¹

1.内蒙古工业大学土木工程学院,呼和浩特 010000;
2.内蒙古工业大学矿业学院,呼和浩特 010000;
3.内蒙古工业大学矿产资源绿色开发重点实验室,呼和浩特 010000;
4.生态型建筑材料与装配式结构内蒙古自治区工程研究中心,呼和浩特 010000

出版日期:2021-12-15 发布日期:2022-01-07
通讯作者: 张菊,博士,副教授。E-mail:zj970741@126.com
作者简介:闫长旺(1978—),男,博士,教授。主要从事矿物固废、建材资源化方面的研究。E-mail:ycw20031013@126.com
基金资助:
国家自然科学基金(51768052);内蒙古自然科学基金(2019LH05021,2019MS05076);内蒙古自治区科技成果转化项目(2019CG072)

Hydration Heat Prediction of Calcium Silicate Slag Cement Composite Cementitious Material Based on ARIMA Model

YAN Changwang^1,2,3,4, SHEN Xiaowei¹, ZHANG Ju^2,3,4, WANG Xiaoxiao¹, YU Hongyuan¹

1. School of Civil Engineering, Inner Mongolia University of Technology, Hohhot 010000, China;
2. School of Mining and Technology, Inner Mongolia University of Technology, Hohhot 010000, China;
3. Key Laboratory of Green Development of Mineral Resources, Inner Mongolia University of Technology, Hohhot 010000, China;
4. Engineering Research Center of Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region for Ecological Architecture Materials and Prefabricated Structure, Hohhot 010000, China

Online:2021-12-15 Published:2022-01-07

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 预测硅钙渣水泥复合胶凝材料水化过程中产生的热量,对于这种材料在混凝土结构中的应用具有现实意义。本文基于ARIMA模型基本理论,建立了硅钙渣掺量分别为0%、10%、30%(质量分数,下同)下硅钙渣水泥复合胶凝材料的水化放热量预测模型,通过与试验数据的对比,验证了模型的准确性与可靠性;基于0%、10%、30%这三种硅钙渣掺量下复合胶凝材料的水化放热量试验数据,建立不同龄期下复合胶凝材料的水化放热量预测模型,并对其他硅钙渣掺量下复合胶凝材料的水化放热量进行预测。结果表明:0%、10%、30%这三种硅钙渣掺量下水化放热量预测值与试验值的相对误差均值均小于5%,这说明运用ARIMA模型预测硅钙渣水泥复合胶凝材料的水化放热量具有较高准确性和可靠性;其他硅钙渣掺量下复合胶凝材料水化放热量的预测结果符合实际变化趋势,进一步证明了ARIMA模型在水化热预测方面的可行性,这为定量研究与预测不同类型胶凝材料的水化放热量提供了一种有效方法。

关键词: 硅钙渣, 复合胶凝材料, 水化放热量, ARIMA模型, 时间序列分析

Abstract: Predicting the heat generated in the hydration process of calcium silicate slag cement composite cementitious material has practical significance for its application in concrete structures. In this paper, based on the basic theory of ARIMA model, the hydration heat prediction models of composite cementitious materials with 0%, 10% and 30% (mass fraction, the same below) calcium silicate slag were established. The accuracy and reliability of the model were verified by comparing with the text values. Based on the text values of composite cementitious materials with 0%, 10%, and 30% calcium silicate slag, the prediction models of hydration heat at different ages were established, and the prediction of hydration heat of composite cementitious materials with other calcium silicate slag content was carried out. The results show that the average relative errors between predicted values and test values are all less than 5% under the calcium silicate slag content of 0%, 10% and 30%, which indicates that the ARIMA model has high accuracy and reliability in predicting the hydration heat of composite cementitious materials. The prediction results of hydration heat of composite cementitious materials with other calcium silicate slag content are in line with the actual change trend, which further proves the feasibility of ARIMA model in the prediction of hydration heat. This provides an effective method for quantitative research and prediction of hydration heat of composite cementitious materials.

Key words: calcium silicate slag, composite cementitious material, hydration heat, ARIMA model, time series analysis

中图分类号:

TU525.9

闫长旺, 申晓玮, 张菊, 王萧萧, 于泓源. 基于ARIMA模型的硅钙渣水泥复合胶凝材料水化热预测[J]. 硅酸盐通报, 2021, 40(12): 3985-3992.

YAN Changwang, SHEN Xiaowei, ZHANG Ju, WANG Xiaoxiao, YU Hongyuan. Hydration Heat Prediction of Calcium Silicate Slag Cement Composite Cementitious Material Based on ARIMA Model[J]. BULLETIN OF THE CHINESE CERAMIC SOCIETY, 2021, 40(12): 3985-3992.

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