关键词: 贝叶斯参数估计;无信息先验分布;圆钢管混凝土短柱;轴心受压;概率模型

Abstract: Probabilistic model for calculating the compressive strength of concrete filled circular steel tubular column was established based on Chinese code (GB 50396-2014) by Bayesian theory.Two types of information, the prior model that compressive capacity calculation formula in Chinese code, and the prior information that the collected 170 test results, were synthesized into Bayesian statistical inference and Bayesian posterior estimate for unknown parameters based on non-information prior distribution.It shows that the Bayesian probabilistic model based on GB 50396-2014 can be conveniently used for the calculation of the compressive capacity for concrete filled circular steel tubular column, and the calculated results are proved good by 170 test data.

Key words: Bayesian parameter estimation;non-information prior distribution;concrete filled circular steel tubular column;axial compression;probabilistic model