关键词: 贝叶斯参数估计;圆钢管混凝土短柱;误差分析;概率模型;抗压强度

Abstract: Based on existing research and the application of Bayesian multivariate linear parameter estimation method , probabilistic models for calculating the compressive strength of concrete filled circular steel tubular column are established based on the Bayesian theory .Two types of information , the prior models that compressive capacity calculation formulas in Chinese code GB 50396-2014 , code AISC360-2010 and code AIJ-SRC01 , and the prior information that the collected 170 test results , are synthesized into Bayesian statistical inference and Bayesian posterior estimate for unknown parameters based on conjugate prior distribution .It shows that the compressive strengths obtained by the simplified models based on Bayesian are in good agreement with test results , and they are closer to the experimental values than the results designed by models in code .The simplified models can be used in the compressive strength prediction and design for concrete filled circular steel tubular column .

Key words: Bayesian parameter estimation;concrete filled circular steel tubular column;errors analysis;probabilistic model;compressive strength